Mosaic Company Earnings Weak, Look to Get Weaker

The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) reported third-quarter 2013 results before markets opened Tuesday morning. The fertilizer maker reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29 on revenues of $1.9 billion. In the same period a year ago, Mosaic reported EPS of $0.98 on revenue of $2.6 billion. Third-quarter results also compare to the FactSet consensus estimate for EPS of $0.81.

During the quarter the company sold its salt operations and closed a small potash mine in Michigan. Mosaic also closed underperforming distribution businesses in Argentina and Chile to focus on growth in Brazil. Since the end of the quarter, Mosaic has agreed to pay $1.4 billion to CF Industries Inc. (NYSE: CF) to acquire phosphate assets.

Mosaic expects potash sales during the fourth quarter to total 1.5 million to 1.9 million metric tons (tonnes) at an average realized price in the range of $285 to $310 a tonne. Gross margin on potash sales is forecast in the mid 20% range. In the third quarter, gross margin on potash sales came in at 35%.

In the company’s phosphates segment, sales are forecast at 2.5 million to 2.9 million tonnes for the fourth quarter at an average realized price of $370 to $400 per tonne. Gross margin is forecast to be flat with the prior quarter, at 14%.

The company’s CEO said:

Lower potash and phosphate prices, a late North American fall application season and cautious dealer behavior led to this quarter’s weaker results. We believe the current challenges in the environment in which we operate, for both phosphate and potash, are cyclical in nature and provide Mosaic opportunities to deploy capital, including shareholder distributions. The long-term outlook for Mosaic remains compelling.

Gross margins fell sequentially from about 30% to about 29%, and operating profit was down from $670.8 million to $620.7 million year-over-year.

FactSet estimates EPS for the full year at $3.15 and fourth-quarter EPS at $0.96. Given expected volumes and margins, those estimates probably will come down.

Shares closed at $46.73 last night and were down about 2% in premarket trading Tuesday to $45.75. The stock’s 52-week range is $39.75 to $64.65. FactSet had a consensus analyst price target of around $46.00 before these results were announced.