Will Alcoa Still Lead Direction of Earnings Season? (Updated)

The Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for the second-quarter of 2014 are $0.12 in earnings per share (versus $0.07 per share a year ago) and $5.66 billion in revenue (down 3.3% from a year ago). As a reminder on that revenue decline, the new effort in wheels and truck bodies are still getting underway and the jet engine parts acquisition is still pending — at a time when Alcoa keeps “right-sizing” its core global operations.

Update at 12:30 Eastern Time: WhisperNumber.com just sent us an earnings whisper forecast of $0.13 EPS. This is a penny ahead of the consensus, but the whispers range is from a low of $0.11 to a high of $0.15 per share. Please note, also from WhisperNumber.com data:

Alcoa has a 36% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 20 of the 56 earnings reports for which we have data). The strongest price movement of +4.8% comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -3.6% within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number.

New efforts and new acquisitions often stump analyst expectations versus guidance. The third-quarter consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters call for $0.14 in earnings per share (versus $0.11 a year earlier) and less than a 1% drop in revenue to $5.71 billion. For 2014, the Thomson Reuters consensus estimate is $0.48 per share (versus $0.33 in 2013) earnings on revenues of $22.61 billion (down 1.8%).

What we will be paying close attention to is how the company sees growth in 2015. Thomson Reuters is calling for $24.27 billion in 2015 revenues (up 7.3%) and for earnings to grow to $0.63 per share (versus $0.48 expected this year).

ALSO READ: Merrill Lynch’s Top Value Picks for the Rest of 2014

Trading at $14.80 the morning before earnings are due, Alcoa is worth $17.35 billion in market cap. We showed how the latest acquisition of Firth Rixson for almost $3 billion is one process of a company transforming from raw materials into a products company. We said:

Firth Rixson will increase Alcoa’s 2013 aerospace revenue by 20%, up to $4.8 billion (versus total company revenue of $23.03 billion). The move is expected to contribute an additional $1.6 billion revenues and $350 million EBITDA in 2016. Alcoa also claims that Firth Rixson’s sales are expected to grow through 2019 at more than double the rate of the global aerospace market.

Here is what analysts said after the recent Firth Rixson acquisition:

• Morningstar said that the move takes Alcoa further away from its dependence on commodity prices.
• Goldman Sachs echoed this stance, also calling it potentially transformative.
• Sterne Agee reiterated its Buy rating on Friday and raised its price target to a street high $18.00.

Alcoa shares have traded in a 52-week range of $7.68 to $15.18. The consensus analyst price target is down at $13.68, so analysts will have to catch up on their price targets if there is good news.

ALSO READ: How 123,000 Tons of Alumina Can Just Evaporate