Q2 25 EPS
$-0.16
MISS 170.52%
Est. $0.23
Q2 25 Revenue
$48.74B
BEAT +10.28%
Est. $44.20B
vs S&P Since Q2 25
+83.6%
BEATING MARKET
CNC +96.7% vs S&P +13.1%
Market Reaction
Did CNC Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
Centene delivered a deeply troubled second quarter for fiscal 2025, swinging to an adjusted loss of $0.16 per diluted share and missing the $0.23 consensus estimate by 170.52%, even as revenues surged 22.4% year-over-year to $48.74 billion, beating e… Read more Centene delivered a deeply troubled second quarter for fiscal 2025, swinging to an adjusted loss of $0.16 per diluted share and missing the $0.23 consensus estimate by 170.52%, even as revenues surged 22.4% year-over-year to $48.74 billion, beating expectations by 10.28%. The stark disconnect between top-line strength and bottom-line collapse traces directly to a dramatic deterioration in the health benefits ratio, which climbed to 93.0% from 87.6% a year ago, as the company absorbed a significant reduction in its net 2025 Marketplace risk adjustment revenue estimate alongside elevated medical costs across its Commercial, Medicaid, and Medicare segments. The revenue beat was largely driven by Medicare Prescription Drug Plan growth and Marketplace membership expansion to 5.9 million members, yet those gains were overwhelmed by worsening cost dynamics. A shareholder lawsuit filed following the company's earlier guidance withdrawal, which sent shares tumbling more than 40% in a single session, underscores the severity of investor concern. Looking ahead, Centene slashed its 2025 earnings outlook to approximately $1.75 per share, with a potential further reduction to $1.25, and is repositioning pricing for 2026.
Key Takeaways
- • Premium and membership growth in the PDP business driving 58% Medicare revenue growth
- • Overall market growth in the Marketplace business contributing to 18% Commercial revenue growth
- • Rate increases in the Medicaid business driving 7% Medicaid revenue growth
- • Reduction in net 2025 Marketplace risk adjustment revenue transfer estimate driving Q2 loss
- • Increased Marketplace medical costs elevating Commercial HBR to 90.6% from 73.4%
- • Higher Medicaid medical costs driven by behavioral health, home health, and high-cost drugs
- • Increase to 2025 Medicare Advantage premium deficiency reserve due to seasonal cost-sharing progression
- • SG&A expense ratio improvement to 7.1% from 8.0% driven by expense leverage and PDP growth
- • Lower Medicaid membership due to redeterminations partially offsetting revenue growth
- • Improved pharmacy rebate remittance timing supporting $1.8 billion operating cash flow
CNC YoY Financials
Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024, source: SEC Filings
CNC Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“We are disappointed by our second quarter results, but we have a clear understanding of the trends that have impacted our performance, and are working with urgency and focus to restore our earnings trajectory.”
— Sarah M. London, Q2 2025 Earnings Press Release
CNC Earnings Trends
CNC vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
CNC EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
CNC Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
CNC Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 | — | $3.37 | — | $49.94B | +5.03% |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $-1.22 | $-1.19 | +2.46% | $49.73B | +4.42% |
| FY Full Year | $2.04 | $2.08 | +2.16% | $194.78B | +1.09% |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $-0.16 | $0.50 | +404.32% | $49.69B | +3.88% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $0.23 | $-0.16 | -170.52% | $48.74B | +10.28% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $2.52 | $2.90 | +15.27% | $46.62B | +7.80% |