CNI Q1 2026 Earnings
Reported Apr 29, 2026 at 7:36 AM ET · SEC Source
Q1 26 EPS
$1.80
MISS 9.09%
Est. $1.98
Q1 26 Revenue
$4.38B
MISS 0.52%
Est. $4.40B
vs S&P Since Q1 26
-3.8%
TRAILING MARKET
CNI -2.6% vs S&P +1.3%
Market Reaction
Did CNI Beat Earnings? Q1 2026 Results
Canadian National Railway delivered a narrowly disappointing first quarter for 2026, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.80 missing the $1.81 consensus by 0.34% and revenue of $4.38 billion falling just short of the $4.40 billion estimate, down 0.6% from… Read more Canadian National Railway delivered a narrowly disappointing first quarter for 2026, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.80 missing the $1.81 consensus by 0.34% and revenue of $4.38 billion falling just short of the $4.40 billion estimate, down 0.6% from a year earlier. The culprit was largely currency-driven: a stronger Canadian dollar weighed on freight revenue per revenue ton-mile, compounded by the April 2025 elimination of Canada's federal carbon tax program, though both headwinds were partially offset by freight rate increases. Volume growth was a bright spot, with RTMs rising 3% to a first-quarter record of 61,834 million, led by a 10% revenue surge in Grain and Fertilizers to $1.05 billion on strong Canadian and U.S. Grain exports. The operating ratio deteriorated 80 basis points on an adjusted basis to 64.2%, reflecting harsher winter conditions and elevated advisory costs. CN's shares have attracted renewed analyst attention on valuation even as management reiterated flattish RTM volume growth for 2026, with adjusted EPS growth expected to modestly exceed that pace amid persistent trade uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
- • Record first-quarter revenue ton miles (RTMs) of 61,834 million, up 3% YoY
- • Grain and Fertilizers segment revenue up 10% driven by higher Canadian and U.S. grain exports and potash exports
- • Record first-quarter fuel efficiency of 0.892 US gallons per 1,000 GTMs, 3% more efficient
- • Best first-quarter employee productivity in five years with GTMs per employee up 8%
- • Free cash flow up 44% to C$900 million on higher operating cash flow and lower capital spending
- • Negative impact of stronger Canadian dollar on revenue translation
- • Elimination of Canadian federal carbon tax program reduced fuel and carbon surcharge revenues by C$44 million
- • Higher winter-related costs including snow clearing and higher incident costs
- • Higher effective tax rate of 24.7% vs. 24.0% in prior year
CNI Forward Guidance & Outlook
CN continues to assume RTM volume growth will be flattish in 2026 and expects adjusted diluted EPS growth to slightly exceed volume growth. The company plans to invest approximately C$2.8 billion in its capital program in 2026, net of customer reimbursements, and expects to continue improving free cash flow conversion. Key assumptions include: 2026/2027 grain crops in Canada and the U.S. in line with five-year averages; Canadian dollar at US$0.73 (updated from US$0.715); and WTI crude oil at US$80–US$110 per barrel (updated from US$60–US$70). The company notes heightened demand risk from volatile macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and global trade tensions.
CNI YoY Financials
Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025, source: SEC Filings
CNI Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
CNI Revenue by Geography
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“I want to thank the entire CN team for delivering on our plan, despite ongoing uncertainty in the macro environment. Our strong commercial and operating performance allow us to fully leverage the strength of our network, enabling us to capture incremental volume. We remain firmly focused on safety, tight execution, cost control and capital discipline.”
— Tracy Robinson, Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release
CNI Earnings Trends
CNI vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
CNI EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
CNI Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
CNI Quarterly Results
4 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 MISS FY | $1.98 | $1.80 | -9.09% | $4.38B | -0.52% |
| FY Full Year | $7.52 | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $1.98 | $2.08 | +5.05% | $4.46B | -20.87% |
| FY Full Year | $7.52 | $7.63 | +1.40% | $17.30B | -0.02% |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $1.77 | $1.83 | +3.30% | $4.17B | +0.34% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $1.90 | $1.87 | -1.44% | $4.27B | -1.67% |