Research that tries to forecast consumers’ buying plans is notoriously inaccurate. It is hard to determine what someone will buy if they have not seen it. Purchase intent based on brand can be trumped by objections to the features and functions of a new device. Potential customers for the Apple (AAPL) iPad may not like it shape, processor, or software.
Comscore has surveyed 2,176 internet users to find out their “e-reader awareness” and purchase plans. The results show that 65% of those who responded know about the Amazon (AMZN) Kindle and the iPad. Apple moves ahead in purchase intent. Of those polled 16% plan to buy an iPad in the next month versus 15% who plan to buy a Kindle. Of course, no one outside Apple and a few suppliers has even seen its product. The Kindle has been for sale for over a year.
The research probably does make one thing clear. Sony (SNE) and Barnes & Noble (BKS) have a hill to climb to catch the Apple and Amazon products. Purchase intent for the Nook is 10% and the Sony (SNE) Reader figure is only 9%. Sony recently dropped the price of its entry-level product by $30 to $169.99.
The comScore research also indicates that possible buyers of the iPad view it as much more than an e-reader device. That may give it a substantial advantage over its competition even though its lowest priced model is $499. Thirty-seven percent of potential owners will use the device to read books, but a much larger 50% plan to use it to access the internet. And 36% plan to use it to watch movies.
The iPad is already viewed as a multi-purpose device probably because Apple has effectively marketed it that way. And, those who buy it won’t need an e-reader at all. That may push also-ran products like Sony’s right out of the market.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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