Herbalife Probes Have Been Going on for Months

Herbalife said on Friday that it had “no knowledge of any ongoing investigation by the DoJ or the FBI.” So either the DoJ and the FBI are investigating the company without telling Herbalife — or somebody’s lying.

An attorney for Herbalife told The Journal, “We believe this is market manipulation through leaks, and we will turn over every stone to establish that.” The attorney also said that the company is cooperating with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) which is conducting a civil inquiry into Herbalife’s business practices.

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman who first charged that Herbalife was an illegal pyramid scheme in December of 2012 and took a massive short position in the stock has the most to gain from the federal investigations, which so far remain unconfirmed by either federal agency or Herbalife. Ackman has said he will go “to the end of the earth” to defend his charges against Herbalife.

So Herbalife is turning over every rock, and Ackman is going to the end of the earth. In the battle of clichés its still a draw. But in the public perception struggle, Ackman has gained a slight edge. He persuaded Massachusetts Senator Edward Markey to call for an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Like the FTC investigation, an SEC probe would be a civil matter. But if the criminal investigations were acknowledged by the DoJ or the FBI, that would certainly put additional pressure on Herbalife stock.

Ackman’s also managed to chop Herbalife’s share price by more than 35% so far in 2014. The stock closed at $51.48 on Friday, down 14% for the day. Its low was $51.19. The shares have traded in a 52-week range of $34.72 to $83.51. That high was set in early January.

Based on a consensus price target of $85.50, the potential upside on Herbalife stock is a whopping 66%. The forward P/E ratio is just 7.32. Overall, investors appear to be taking a cautious approach to Herbalife shares — with some exceptions like Carl Icahn who has a 17% stake in Herbalife and 5 of 13 seats on the company’s board of directors.