Can P&G Ever Hedge Its Currency Woes?

A.G. Lafley, chairman, president and CEO of P&G, explained that the 2015 fiscal year will be a challenging one. Foreign exchange is expected to reduce sales by 5% and net earnings by 12% after tax. The company maintained its guidance of organic sales growth in the low- to mid-single-digit range. Net sales growth is expected to be -3% to -4%.

P&G’s business segments reported:

• Beauty, Hair and Personal Care segment organic sales decreased 1%, driven primarily by declines in the Prestige and Skin and Personal Care categories. This was partially offset by sales growth in the Salon Professional and Antiperspirant & Deodorant businesses. Foreign exchange negatively impacted the segment by 4%.
• Grooming segment organic sales increased 2% due to higher pricing and improved results from Gillette grooming and Braun. This growth was partially offset by lower shipment volume. Foreign exchange negatively impacted the segment by 7%.
• Health Care segment organic sales increased 1% behind growth in Oral Care due to increased pricing. These improvements were partially offset by lower volume in Personal Health Care, primarily from a decline on Prilosec due to a new market entrant. Foreign exchange negatively impacted the segment by 4%.
• Fabric Care and Home Care segment organic sales increased 3% as growth on Fabric Care from new products and “consumer value corrections” were partially offset by lower volume in Home Care, mainly in Asia. Foreign exchange negatively impacted the segment by 6%.
• Baby, Feminine and Family Care segment organic sales increased 4% behind pricing and new products in Baby Care and Feminine Care, partially offset by lower sales in Family Care due to a soft period in Mexico and “consumer value interventions” in the United States. Foreign exchange negatively impacted the segment by 6%.

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Lafley commented on the foreign exchange for the quarter:

The October – December 2014 quarter was a challenging one with unprecedented currency devaluations. Virtually every currency in the world devalued versus the U.S. dollar, with the Russian Ruble leading the way. While we continue to make steady progress on the strategic transformation of the company — which focuses P&G on about a dozen core categories and 70 to 80 brands, on leading brand growth, on accelerating meaningful product innovation and increasing productivity savings — the considerable business portfolio, product innovation, and productivity progress was not enough to overcome foreign exchange.

Just a week before the company released its earnings, the firm B. Riley reiterated a Neutral rating for P&G and lowered its price target to $87.00 from $91.00, implying upside of 1.6% from Monday’s close. The highest listed analyst price target is $105.00 and implies upside of 17.2%.

Shares of P&G closed Monday down 0.6% at $89.58. Shares went down even further in premarket trading, over 2% to $87.35. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $92.89 and a 52-week trading range of $75.26 to $93.89.

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