Which Way Is Under Armour Headed?

By Trey Thoelcke Published Jul 23, 6:50AM EDT

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How will Under Armour (NYSE: UA) shares respond to earnings Thursday? If they fall short of estimates, will the fall be cushioned by the success of its golfing star Jordan Spieth? If they exceed estimates, will shares fly to a new high?

Anyone can try to answer these short-term questions with a few pithy remarks, but keep in mind that if any person starting with $1,000 could predict the daily movements of even a single stock for a single week, that person would easily be a millionaire with the right leverage tools. If someone could do it for a month, he or she would own a substantial portion of the entire planet.

In general, it is fair to say that low or pessimistic estimates prime stocks for knee-jerk upswings if they are met or exceeded. Consensus earnings of $0.05 a share are pretty low for Under Armour, so anything above that will probably see a pop, aided by recent exposure from its latest golf poster boy. Low estimates also tend to mitigate downside, and with Wall Street already expecting a lackluster number, Spieth’s success (despite a second place finish) probably will mitigate any downside further.

We saw the exact opposite effect in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares this week, when iPhone sales skyrocketed but by a target number just a little bit lower than the high bar set by analysts. Shares fell over 4%, replete with headlines calculating the huge loss in market cap experienced by the largest company by market cap in world history, never mind that every move Apple makes is enormous by those standards.

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There is reason enough to bet that Under Armour will beat consensus estimates, if only because it actually does beat them in reality 95% of the time, and “only” 92% of the time in terms of revenue. When you see numbers like that, you have to raise an eyebrow at earnings estimates in general, because either these analysts are consistently bad, or they are consistently trying to set up a long trade with free advice they send out to non-clients.

What can be said with confidence though is that Spieth’s success will have an effect on earnings going forward, so regardless of what happens with the report, Under Armour will continue its uptrend as long as general market conditions remain favorable.

And the answer to that question may become clearer 30 minutes after market close when the new money stock report comes out at 4:30 p.m. ET. Last week saw a jump in money supply of over $100 billion after a nearly three-month downtrend. If that jump continues this week, then the chances of general market conditions stabilizing and current uptrends continuing rises significantly. On the other hand, if we fall back below $12 trillion, the chances of a major trend reversal also become substantially higher.

Conclusion? For day traders on the premarket before earnings come in, low earnings estimates, a 95% record of beating the consensus and the Jordan Spieth effect point to a quick long trade. For long-term trend followers, wait a day, and if money supply is $12 trillion or higher, buy any dips and hold. If it drops back below $12 trillion, lighten positions and wait for money supply to regain its April highs of $12.1 trillion before slowly scaling back in.

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About the Author Trey Thoelcke →

Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.

Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community. He previously oversaw the 24/7 Climate Insights site, managing editorial operations and content strategy, and currently oversees and creates content for My Investing News.

Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.

Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, overseeing a long-running critique group and moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions. He lives with his family in an old house in the Midwest.