The Institute for Supply Management has released its January non-manufacturing data. The services economy isn’t pretty. But it also isn’t as bad as many expected.
The ISM showed that the non-manufacturing index was 42.9 for January. December was 40.1, and economists were expectingthat the data would hit 39.0. This is still atrocious. Just not as atrocious as itwas expected to be.
The business index led the performance. It was 44.2, upfrom 38.9 in December. Prices are still holding up or not falling asmuch. They were 42.5, up from 36.1 in December. And new ordersalso didn’t fall as much with a reading of 41.6, up from 38.9 inDecember.
The bad news is that unemployment is getting worse. Thatcame in at 34.4, which is just under the 34.5 reading in December.With all the retail jobs and other service sector jobs getting cut, theemployment picture will probably get worse.
The stock market did tick up on this news. Just don’t get too excitedthat "a beat over estimates" is a win. This is still veryrecessionary. The companies claiming that the resumption of growthwill come from a much lower bar are finding many more followers whobelieve them.
Jon C. Ogg
February 4, 2009