How confident are you?
If you thought the Conference Board’s reading of consumer confidence was bad at 37.4 in January, you should see the carnage in February. Economists were expecting a mild decline from already-suppressed levels down to 35 to 36 depending upon which consensus source you used. This reading was 25.0, the worst on record.
The present situation index fell to a reading of 21.2 and the expectations index fell to 27.5. The January readings for these were 29.7 and 42.5. What is amazing is that the percentage calling business conditions bad rose to 51.1% from 47.9% the month before. Those saying there were “good” business conditions was 6.8%. Amazingly, that is up from 6.4% in January. But still…. SIX????
It is true that economists consider unemployment a “lagging indicator” but the fears here are still growing. Those calling the jobs “hard to get” are now 47.8%, up sharply from 41.1% in January. Those calling jobs plentiful have fallen off a cliff. That number was a mere 4.4%, down from 7.1% in January.
As the tee-shirt says…. “The beatings will continue until morale improves.” Maybe morale doesn’t even matter any more. The beatings continue.
Jon C. Ogg
February 24, 2009
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