The Institute for Supply Management has issued some data for March showing that the decline in manufacturing has at least moderated. The report came in at 36.3, which is above estimates of 35.0 and above the 35.8 reading from February. The prices paid component was 31.0, also up from 29.0 in February and the employment index came in at 28.1, up from 26.1 in February. The new orders index is still in contraction as far as the growth meter is concerned, but it came in substantially higher at 41.2 in March over a reading of 33.1 in February. There was also a decline in the inventories component at 32.2 in March, down from 37.0 in February. This is still dismal. It just is not as dismal as it could have been. There is also the notion that as soon as orders get better that there will be a much higher increase in activity because the inventories are continuing to contract. This data is probably a side show compared with the worries caused by the labor data this morning.
Jon C. Ogg
April 1, 2009