Storm Threatens The Gulf (Update 6/24)

The National Hurricane Center and NOAA have updated the information on the storm that is moving into the Gulf:

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA…JAMAICA…CUBA…THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS…AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…40 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA…JAMAICA…CUBA…THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS…AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…40 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea could form into the season’s first named Atlantic basin storm late this week and possibly threaten the oil and natural gas-rich Gulf of Mexico next week, forecaster Planalytics said Tuesday. “I remain feeling quite confident that this season’s first named storm will form over the western Caribbean late this week,” said Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, in a research note. The storm would be named “Alex”

One of the greatest fears among BP, the federal government and people in the Gulf States is that a storm surge could drive the oil slick inland and coat thousands of square miles with crude. That could affect hundreds of thousands of residents and make the cost of cleaning up the storm exponentially higher.

The National Weather Service has already predicted that three hurricane-strength storms will enter the Gulf between now and November 30. The agency does not give odds about when those storms will occur. And, there is some chance that the first one will hit before the end of this month.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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