The National Association of Business Economics cut its forecast for 2010 and 2011 growth. This makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will as well, which could lead to a new series of fixed income purchases in an attempt to simulate economic activity.
The NABE wrote:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is now expected to advance 2.6 percent in 2010, down from the panel’s May prediction of 3.2 percent. While some of this reduction relates to historical data revisions, most of the markdown reflects worse-than-expected summer results and a dimmed outlook. Next year’s 2.6 percent gain shows the lack of a typical cyclical rebound and only matches the long-term growth trend previously expected by the NABE panel.
On the issue of unemployment, the forecast was even more gruesome:
Monthly payroll gains are forecast to average 150,000 or less until the latter half of 2011, at which time gains will improve to a range of 170,000-175,000. Joblessness will remain high, with the unemployment rate persisting at over 9.5 percent or more through midyear 2011 before easing only slightly to 9.2 percent by year-end 2011. This will mark the worst post-recession job recovery on record.
The group also said that the housing market was in the process of stabilizing which seems very unlikely.
The last two months have witnessed several rounds of decreases in expectations for economic growth. And, the number moves closer to zero as each month passes.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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