New Survey Says Economy to Expand Next Year … If

A new poll of economists by the AP reads like many others. The U.S. GDP will improve in 2012, so long as it is not undermined by European problems and a host of other things. It is hardly a prediction at all because the results are so riddled with caveats.

Questions about next year’s economy were put to more than 30 experts from the public and private sectors. These experts expect GDP expansion of 2.4%, a figure that remains anemic compared to recoveries from recessions in the 1970s, 1980s and the past decade.

The AP added a list of qualifiers to the prediction. The greatest is the eurozone crisis. But that is not the end of it.

Beyond Europe, troubles in other areas could also upset the U.S. economy next year, the economists say. Congressional gridlock ahead of the 2012 elections and unforeseen global events, like this year’s Arab Spring protests, could slow the U.S. economy.

Although all of these problems cannot be expected to appear, some mix of them is likely. That undermines the forecast almost completely.

The eurozone’s troubles do not seem likely to go away. Unemployment has risen in many of the largest nations in Europe. GDP has contracted, or is forecast to, in many of the same countries. There is no final plan to bailout the weakest nations. In other words, solutions hardly match the magnitude of the problems.

Congress and the White House do not appear ready to work together on critical programs that might increase jobs. The two can barely agree on extensions of tax cuts and unemployment benefits, which will be up for debate again after the holiday recess. The negations will be tense because of the national election that is now only nine months away.

The AP forecast is not a forecast at all. It is a guess with too many “maybes” attached to it.

Douglas A. McIntyre