Chicago PMI Now Running at Recession Levels

The report for September’s Chicago purchasing managers is a huge disappointment, and the report is sending stocks further south (DJIA -112 and S&P 500 -11). The adjusted index fell to a recessionary/contraction level of 49.7 from 53.0 in August. This is a recessionary number and it echoes the cautious stance seen from CFO and CEO outlooks that came out this week from other sources.

Bloomberg had a consensus report all the way up at 53.0 for September, making this just that much more of a disappointment. It was also worse than all of the estimates out there, as Bloomberg listed a range of 50.2 to 54.0 from its economists.

The price paid component rose to 63.2 in September from 57.0 in August. Supplier deliveries managed to rise to an expansionary level of 52.1 in September from 49.9 in August. A huge disappointment came from the employment reading as the September reading fell to 52.0 from 57.1 in August. Perhaps the biggest disappointment was the New Orders component, falling to a very weak 47.4 from 54.8 in August.

With a higher prices paid and with a weak new orders component, the implication is that orders are simply costing more money and total unit orders are on the decline.

JON C. OGG