On Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST, we will get the second revision to the fourth-quarter 2012 gross domestic product (GDP). This is considered the final revision, and Wall St. economists are expecting the numbers to be revised even higher now.
Bloomberg has a consensus reading so far of +0.6%, and Dow Jones has a consensus expectation of 0.5%. While 0.5% or 0.6% GDP growth is considered barely growth at all, remember that the first revision was only at +0.1% and the preliminary figure showed a reading of -0.1%. This means that we are negating negative growth, and it means that the recovery, even if weak, is still continuing.
Some of the wild cards remain government spending, which was facing a channel stuff in some places and an abandonment in other places ahead of the fiscal cliff deadline. This will not take into consideration any of the spending sequestration debates of February and will not take any debt ceiling limit arguments from 2013 into account.
The final revision of a GDP report should not have a significant impact on the markets. That being said, the caveat would be so long as there are no serious negative surprises.
We would not want even to imprint this thought because that is not the case, but what if the revision somehow came back into the red with a negative number? That would not be good, though we also would point out that the range from Bloomberg was 0.1% to 0.8%, and that means that not a single economist is looking for a negative reading.
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