Richmond Federal Reserve Shows Real Contraction in April

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By Jon C. Ogg Published
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Another weak reading was issued from yet another regional Federal Reserve Bank. The Richmond Fed reading fell sharply to -6 in April, versus a reading of 3 in March. Bloomberg had a consensus reading set to remain flat at 3, and businesses are growing more pessimistic for the six months ahead.

One note to consider is that the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank is headed up Jaffrey Lacker, who is one of the more vocal Fed-Hawks against the bond buying and endless quantitative easing measures. If he is hawkish when his own region is starting to hit skid row, there may be something to try to read into here.

New orders fell to -8 in April, and that was after already being negative at -4 in March. The shipments component of the index fell to -9 from a positive reading of 8 the prior month. The Employment Index managed to remain above the zero breakeven point, but this was still down at 3 in April from 9 in March.

One problem is that the work week component fell to -3 in April, after being up at a positive reading of 10 in March. That spells weaker demand for labor, even if the trend remains technically in positive territory.

The Richmond Fed is a low-impact Fed bank reading, but it is one part of the puzzle, and it coincides with what we have seen as far as weaker growth in some components or even broader contraction from each regional reading.

Stocks are dusting off the news as the DJIA is up 134 points at 14,700 and the S&P 500 is up 14 points at 1,576.50.

Photo of Jon C. Ogg
About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

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