Why Beef Prices Will Rise Again, Despite Recent Slide

Looking first at livestock prices, the USDA projects U.S. red meat and poultry production to rise in 2015 as pork and poultry production increase. Beef prices per hundredweight are expected to average $146 to $150 and rise to a range of $145 to $157 next year. Hog prices are forecast in a range of $79 to $81 per hundredweight for 2014 with the range widening to $75 to $81 in 2015.

Milk production is forecast higher for 2015 as this year’s high prices are causing farmers to expand their herds. The forecast price for all milk products is forecast to slide from a range of $23.25 to $23.55 per hundredweight this year to a range of $19.75 to $20.75 per hundredweight in 2015.

Chicken and turkey production is forecast to be rise next year. Prices for both will remain high as poultry is being substituted for the more expensive beef and pork products by many consumers. Higher egg production will keep egg prices in check this year, and prices are now forecast to fall further in 2015.

For crops like wheat, corn, and other grains the forecast is based on data about production so far on winter wheat and plantings of other crops. The USDA expects U.S. wheat supplies for 2014-2015 to rise by 86 million bushels compared with the current crop year as beginning inventories, production, and imports are currently all forecast to be lower. The all wheat season average price for the next year is projected at $6.00 to $7.20 a bushel compared with today’s wheat price of around $5.30 which is nearly $2 a bushel below the 12-month high of about $7.40 at the beginning of May.

Corn production is forecast roughly flat with the prior year at a record 13.86 billion bushels while prices should be lower. The projected season average corn price for this year is $4.50 to $4.80 a bushel falling to an expected range of $3.65 to $4.35 next year. Corn futures are trading at around $3.80 a bushel today.

Prices for wheat and corn have dropped significantly since their recent peaks in early May. Even live cattle prices have moderated somewhat recently. Hog prices, however, are still rising on the devastating virus that continues to kill piglets.

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