USDA Projects Farm Income to Drop 32% in 2015

Direct government payments to farmers will rise 15% from $10.8 billion a year ago to an estimated $12.4 billion in 2015. Crop revenue is forecast to fall 7.9% to $182.6 billion, and revenues from livestock are expected to drop 4.9% to $199 billion. Total gross income is expected to be down 6.7% year-over-year and expenses are set to increase by 0.7%.

The USDA also released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at noon Tuesday, offering the agency’s latest estimates for U.S. and global crop supply, as well as demand prospects and U.S. prices for the current and next crop years. The stronger U.S. dollar affects export competitiveness for all ag commodities.

U.S. 2015 production of grain (including wheat, corn and rice among others) is estimated at 439.9 million metric tons (tonnes), higher than an estimated production of 431.3 million tonnes in 2013-14 and 353 million tonnes in 2012-13.

U.S. wheat exports are forecast to fall by 25 million bushels in 2015, and the season-average estimated price has been lowered to $5.85 to $6.15 a bushel.

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Corn exports are forecast flat at 1.75 billion bushels, and the price range has been narrowed to $3.40 to $3.90 a bushel.

Beef production is forecast essentially flat, with both imports and exports expected to be lower in 2015. Pork production is expected to increase by about 1.2 billion pounds. Beef prices are forecast at annual averages of $157 to $167 per hundredweight for steers and $54 to $58 per hundredweight for hogs. Beef prices are slightly higher than the February estimate of around $155 per hundredweight for beef and sharply lower than the $76 per hundredweight price for hogs.