This Friday will bring the key jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department. While the financial markets will want a positive payrolls number, the reality is that the bulls may not want the higher payrolls to be so hot that the Federal Reserve will get more ammunition to raise interest rates much sooner than expected.
24/7 Wall St. is bringing a preview of the jobs report itself, and we are also including “pre-payrolls” previews as well that will include jobs data from September.
As of Monday, Bloomberg has the consensus estimates calling for a gain of 215,000 nonfarm payrolls. That is up from a preliminary report of 142,000 in August. Private sector payrolls are expected to be 215,000 versus a prior report of 134,000. The official unemployment rate is expected to remain static at 6.1%. Also expected is a 0.2% gain in average hourly earnings, followed by a static workweek of 34.5 hours.
One word of caution to readers — the gain of 142,000 nonfarm payrolls was so low compared to estimates that many expected a month ago to see an upward revision when the September payrolls report is delivered. The “U-6” underemployment rate fell to 12.0% in August from 12.2% in July.
Here is what is expected from other economic releases due ahead of Friday’s key unemployment report:
- Wednesday’s ADP Employment Report from the private sector is expected to be 200,000 according to Bloomberg — versus 204,000 in the prior report.
- Wednesday’s TrimTabs report has no estimates.
- ISM Manufacturing due on Wednesday has an employment component as well, which will be for September.
- Thursday will bring weekly jobless claims from the Labor Department, which covered last week’s data. Bloomberg has estimates of 297,000 versus last week’s preliminary report of 293,000.
- Thursday will bring the Challenger Job-Cut Report — no Bloomberg estimates.
Stay tuned. The markets have been extremely volatile ahead of Friday’s report. That alone could be enough to drive the market, even outside of the notion that the monthly payrolls report from the BLS is generally the most closely watched report of all economic reports each month.
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