Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) has internal data that show little improvement to consumer expenditures in January. Credit card and debit card spending was unchanged month-over-month and has actually slowed down over the past few months. The Census Bureau’s December report supported this data but it was a slightly weaker picture.
What consumers appear to be doing instead of spending is saving this cash from lower gas prices. This number could be skewed by consumers with credit cards who are not as budget constrained as those who predominately spend with cash.
On the broad scope, the current spending breaks down as a pick-up in sales at home-improvement stores, restaurants and grocery stores. There was a slowdown in lodging and furniture sales.
From internal Bank of America data, seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 1.6% month-over-month in January. Nearly all of the recent slowdown can be explained by a decline in spending at gas stations due to the drop in prices.
The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that retail sales fell by 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the month of December. 24/7 Wall St had previously pointed out that consumer spending was looking weak for these winter months.
Merrill Lynch believes that the Census Bureau’s retail sales data has a high correlation with Bank of America Card spending. As a result, the firm is expecting the Census Bureau to revise its December spending up. Merrill Lynch also notes that there has been a pattern of upward revisions for the retail data over the past 12 months.
Returns as a percent of total sales spiked to 2.6% in January. Usually in January, returns do go up but this is the highest they have been in roughly two years.
In recent years, spending in Texas has outpaced the rest of the country. This reflects a relatively healthier economy. However, January sales were notably weakened and demonstrated a slowing year-over-year growth rate. This drop could potentially be from a slowdown in the oil-and-gas industry.
Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, recorded a 4.3% fourth quarter increase, the largest jump since the first quarter of 2006. Third quarter consumer spending increased by 3.2%.
Current estimates for the first quarter of 2015 have expectations of 4% to 5% for consumer spending based on current market conditions. Considering a weak spending report card from January these estimates might have to take into account how consumers may be saving more.
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