FOMC Content to Remain Patient

Regarding the economy, the FOMC appears sanguine about employment and inflation:

Job gains had been strong, and the Committee judged that labor market slack continued to diminish. In addition, members decided that the statement should note the further decline of inflation seen of late and the additional decline that was in prospect in the near term, while also registering their judgment that these short-term movements of inflation largely reflected the recent decline in energy prices and other transitory factors, and that inflation was likely to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term.

There remains some disagreement on the timing of a new tightening regime:

Some participants were concerned that a decision to delay the commencement of tightening could be perceived as indicating that an overly accommodative policy is likely to prevail during the firming phase. In connection with the risks associated with an early start to policy normalization, many participants observed that a premature increase in rates might damp the apparent solid recovery in real activity and labor market conditions, undermining progress toward the Committee’s objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. In addition, an earlier tightening would increase the likelihood that the Committee might be forced by adverse economic outcomes to return the federal funds rate to its effective lower bound.

No interest rate hike is likely for at least two more meetings, according to observers conversant in Fedspeak. The FOMC’s statement at the end of the meeting was adopted unanimously.

The S&P 500 and the DJIA, both of which were trading near daily lows before the announcement, got a temporary boost from the press released. After about half an hour though, the bloom was off and equities declined again before getting an end-of-day boost from the last-minute traders.

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