Economy

Labor Department Unemployment and Payrolls Get Curveball From ADP and TrimTabs

Friday’s unemployment and payrolls report from the U.S. Labor Department just became a lot more difficult to predict. ADP posted a very weak economic report on its payrolls for March, while TrimTabs showed a much larger reading.

ADP showed that 189,000 jobs were added in private sector in the month of March 2015. Separately, the ADP Small Business Report announced 108,000 jobs added, while the National Franchise Report announced 20,000 jobs added. ADP is based solely on private sector jobs, and it generally pertains to small and mid-sized businesses that use ADP rather than rely on their own HR departments entirely.

TrimTabs has now projected that the U.S. economy added 268,000 jobs in March, up from between 215,000 and 245,000 jobs in February — with the note that the labor market is gradually breaking out of its winter slowdown and that job growth last month was the strongest in four months. TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 140 million U.S. workers subject to withholding.

Bloomberg is calling for total nonfarm payrolls to be up 247,000 in March. Its private sector payrolls estimate is a tad lower at 247,000.

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