Drought Expected to Worsen in the West

Hot, dry weather west of the Rockies is forecast through the end of June, with temperatures averaging nine to 18 degrees above normal in Utah, Nevada, the northern Rockies and perhaps even higher along the eastern slope of the Cascades, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Drought conditions are no worse than “moderate” in small pockets east of the Rockies, all the way to the Atlantic Ocean. Southern Florida and a swath across six states in the Northeast continue to experience a moderate long-term drought, as do relatively small areas stretching from Canada to Mexico between the Rockies and the Mississippi River.

In San Francisco, a rainfall deficit of 31.51 inches has built up since 2011. That is more than a full year’s average rainfall for the Bay Area. It is worse in Santa Cruz, where the four-year rainfall deficit of 50.54 inches amounts to more than 160% of the area’s average annual rainfall.

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The somewhat better news for California is that a stronger El Niño weather pattern is forming in the Pacific Ocean, and the latest consensus forecast gives El Niño a 90% chance of continuing in the Northern Hemisphere through the fall and about an 85% chance of continuing through the coming winter months. A stronger El Niño event usually produces significantly wetter winters in central and southern California.