As Industrial Production Ticks Up, Can Capacity Ever Break Above 80%?

June’s industrial production rose by 0.3%. Dow Jones and Bloomberg each had consensus targets calling for a gain of 0.2%. May industrial production was left unrevised at -0.2% and May capacity utilization was revised to 78.2% from 78.1%.

The small gain was shown to be reflective of utilities and mining, and the key manufacturing benchmark was more or less unchanged — the output of motor vehicles and parts fell 3.7%, but production elsewhere in manufacturing rose 0.3%. The best parts of the report remain in business equipment and in materials.

All in all, total industrial production was up only 1.5% over the trailing 12 months.

The other side of the coin is capacity utilization rates. This has been very muted also and has been unable to get back above 80% since before the Great Recession. With the companies awash in capacity, this keeps pressure up against companies overhiring, and it also acts to mute capital spending for big new plants and equipment in manufacturing and in production.

June’s capacity utilization was up 0.2% at 78.4%. The Dow Jones consensus called for 78.1%, and Bloomberg was calling for 78.2%. Capacity is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run average of 1972 to 2014. If you want a core capacity, the reading looks even more dismal at 77.2% in total manufacturing capacity, with the booster coming from higher capacity in utilities and mining.

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