Empire Manufacturing Strength Seems More Mixed All Around

By Jon C. Ogg Published Jul 15, 11:15AM EDT

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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the manufacturing report from the Federal Reserve of New York, came out with a six-point gain to 3.86 for the month of July. Bloomberg had a consensus of 3.5, from a range of -0.5 to 6.0.

What has stood out of late is that this index has been more or less flat for several months. The end result has been that there was limited to no growth in the manufacturing sector in that region. This uptick is welcome news, although it is still not a national report. There is also a question of whether the stronger components imply actual manufacturing growth.

July’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed that the new orders index was little changed at -3.5. The New York Fed indicated that this is a sign that orders continued to decline. Also, the shipments index fell by four points to 7.9.

A gain was seen in labor market indicators, signaling a small increase in employment levels and the average work week. The price indexes pointed to modest increases in both input prices and selling prices, but the prices paid index reached its lowest level in roughly three years.

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Indexes for the six-month outlook suggested that optimism about future business conditions was slightly higher than in June, but in line with the trend over the past six months, and expectations for improvement remained subdued. Additional reporting from the New York Fed was follows:

Business conditions were somewhat better for New York manufacturers, according to the July 2015 survey. After a slightly negative reading last month, the general business conditions index rose six points to 3.9. This index has moved in a see-saw pattern around zero for the past four months, indicating that business activity remains subdued. Thirty-one percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved, while 27 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index remained negative and, at -3.5, indicated a small decline in orders for a second consecutive month. The shipments index came in at 7.9, pointing to a modest increase in shipments. The unfilled orders index retreated three points to -7.5, signaling a decline in unfilled orders. The delivery time index came in at zero, indicating that delivery times were unchanged, and the inventories index fell 10 points to -8.5, a sign that inventory levels dropped.

This report is often viewed ahead of the various national activity indexes. Because it is July data, it is considered more real-time data than May and June reports.

Thursday morning will bring the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, and Bloomberg has a consensus estimate of 12.0 for July, up from 15.2 in June.

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About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.