Consumer Sentiment Ticks Lower in August

Sentiment came in at 92.9 in the August report. Bloomberg had its consensus estimate at 93.5, with a range of 92.5 to 97.0. Dow Jones had a consensus estimate of 94.0 shortly ahead of this report.

The report on Current economic conditions came in at 107.1 for August, versus 107.2 in July and 108.9 in June. The index of consumer expectations ticked lower to 83.8 from 84.1 in July and 87.8 in June.

The University of Michigan’s sentiment reading quote was as follows:

Consumer confidence was virtually unchanged in early August from the July reading, marking its highest nine month average since 2004. Renewed strength in personal finances largely offset slight declines in prospects for the national economy and buying conditions. The declines in prospects for the economy probably reflect the expected increases in interest rates, while the eventual but small impacts from falling commodity prices, the devaluation of the renminbi, and a weaker global economy have yet to occur (other than from declines in oil prices). The most important offset to these concerns is that consumption expenditures can be expected to expand at an annual rate of 3.0% in 2015 and 2016, prompting continuing net gains in jobs and incomes.

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Consumer sentiment had eased in July to 93.1 from the 96.1 reading in June. Still, the weakness in July was shown by Bloomberg ahead of Friday’s report to have “reflected less optimism on the jobs outlook though readings through the report still remained healthy.” The University of Michigan itself noted of the drop in July: “A disappointing pace of economic growth was the main reason for the small decline in consumer confidence. Nonetheless, the data provide no indication of a break in the prevailing positive trend.”

While this is a dip lower in sentiment for August, the reality is that this just may not be far enough off of expectations to move the needle much in either direction, even if the markets have come off their highs of the morning.