If you were hoping that the weakness in the September payrolls report from the U.S. Labor Department was going to be a one-month outlier, a new report from TrimTabs indicates that this may not be the case. TrimTabs has signaled that the U.S. economy is continuing to slow into October.
TrimTabs said that the growth of the income tax withholdings in September dropped to the slowest growth of 2015 — and that the growth continued to pull back into early October. The TrimTabs Macroeconomic Index of Leading Macroeconomic Indicators has now hit a three-month low.
Tuesday’s report showed that the slowing U.S. economy is based on declining growth in the withheld income and employment taxes that flow daily into the U.S. Treasury. Real growth in income tax withholdings dropped to 4.0% in September from 5.5% in August on a year-over-year basis. TrimTabs further showed that withholdings growth has continued to decelerate into early October, with year-over-year real growth slowing to 3.9% in the four-week period ending on Friday, October 9.
TrimTabs is often discounted in its views on payrolls. That admission being made, its analysis is based on the daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 143 million U.S. workers subject to withholding.
It is worth noting that the nonfarm payrolls for September was reported as only 142,000 by the U.S. Department of Labor, about 60,000 short of the estimates going into the number. ADP, which competes against TrimTabs for pre-targeting the monthly payrolls number, had projected that the number was 200,000 in added payrolls. TrimTabs was much closer in its report, showing that only 149,000 payrolls were added in September.
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TrimTabs specifically said in its preliminary October view:
We believe turmoil in financial markets and emerging economies is having a negative impact on the U.S. economy. … We’ve been writing for some time that the Fed will act later rather than sooner. The Fed has demonstrated repeatedly that its foremost objective is to support asset prices, and recent market volatility and looming fiscal debates in Congress are likely to keep it on hold for the rest of this year.
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