The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its view on third-quarter GDP, showing that real gross domestic product, adjusted for price changes, rose by a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.5%. Bloomberg had its consensus estimate at 1.7%, and Dow Jones (via the Wall Street Journal) had its consensus estimate at 1.5%. In the second quarter, real GDP increased by 3.9%.
The so-called deflator, the GDP price index, was up by 1.2% in the third quarter. Bloomberg called for a 1.4% gain, and this compares to a reading of 2.1% in the second quarter of this year. Again, the Fed wants to see inflation get back up to 2.0% to 2.5%.
The current-dollar GDP increased 2.7%, or $121.1 billion, in the third quarter to $18.0348 trillion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP rose by 6.1%, or $264.4 billion.
The BEA signaled that the third quarter’s small gain in real GDP primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, state and local government spending, non-residential fixed investment, exports and residential fixed investment. The number was offset, or dragged down, by negative contributions from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, also increased.
Thursday’s BEA release was based on source data that are considered incomplete or subject to further revision, and there will be two more adjustments made in 30 days and 60 days for the revisions before a final GDP is declared. The next revision will be November 24.
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