Thursday’s economic reports included the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, a look at leading economic indicators. This report has a one-month look back so its name can be misleading. And much of the report is compiled from data that already has been seen in prior days and weeks as well.
Leading indicators for the United States increased by 0.1 percentage point in February to 123.2. This follows a 0.2% decline in January and follows a 0.3% decline in December.
Bloomberg had the consensus economist estimate a tad higher at 0.2%. The Econoday range was 0.1% to 0.3%.
Two readings are also reported with the Coincident Economic Index and the Lagging Economic Index. The coincidental portion rose 0.1% in February to 113.3, versus a 0.3% increase in January and a 0.2% increase in December. Rising more was the lagging component. It increased 0.4% in February to 120.4, compared with a 0.1% increase in October and no change in December.
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The Conference Board’s said:
The U.S. LEI increased slightly in February, after back-to-back monthly declines, but housing permits, stock prices, consumer expectations, and new orders remain sources of weakness. Although the LEI’s six-month growth rate has moderated considerably in recent months, the outlook remains positive with little chance of a downturn in the near-term.
These 10 components make up the Leading Economic Index each month:
- Average weekly hours, manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
- ISM Index of New Orders
- Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- Building permits, new private housing units
- Stock prices, 500 common stocks
- Leading Credit Index
- Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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