Employment Trends Index Confirms Poor BLS Payrolls Data From Prior Week

Friday’s payrolls data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed an employment picture so weak that many people might have thought the headline numbers were missing a a digit. Even for those of us who were expecting the nonfarm payrolls to be weaker than the 158,000 consensus, the 38,000 reading was far weaker than the lowest official estimate of 110,000.

Now on Monday comes a confirming report from the Conference Board. Maybe it is not as widely followed, but it does at least go along enough as a confirmation.

The Conference Board reported that its Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell in May. It also said that the six-month growth rate is now in negative territory, despite having rebounded in April.

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The ETI index came in at 126.81 for May, lower than the upwardly revised 128.53 in April. The change represents a modest 0.7% gain in the ETI compared to a year ago. What is interesting here is that while there was an upward revision on the ETI, both the nonfarm and private sector payrolls were revised lower in the Labor Department report.

Note that the ETI aggregates eight labor-market indicators, and the negatives heavily outweighed the positives. May’s decrease in the ETI was fueled by negative contributions from six out of eight components. Negative contributions were seen in the involuntarily part-time workers, initial jobless claims, those saying jobs are hard to find, positions unable to be filled, temporary help and the number of job openings. That left only the reports around industrial production and on manufacturing and trade sales not being negative.

Monday’s report from the Conference Board said:

The Employment Trends Index decreased in May. Its continued weakness suggests that job growth will remain modest in the coming months. Despite softening in the ETI, its recent decline is not nearly as large as those that have preceded past employment contractions.

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Investors usually take little to no notice of the Employment Trends Index, at least unless it might counter the trend seen from the Department of Labor on its monthly payrolls and unemployment report. Monday’s report simply confirms that the jobs market might actually be as weak as was reported in the more visible Employment Situation report from Friday.