Empire State Manufacturing Posts Unexpected Big Gain

Wednesday’s barrage of economic reports included the June reading for the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The Federal Reserve bank reported that the general business conditions index was one of the few economic reports coming out better than expected, at 6.01 for June. May’s reading was −9.02.

Bloomberg was calling for a reading of −3.50 in June, and Reuters called for a −4.0 reading for the month.

Wednesday’s Empire State Manufacturing Index report was ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on interest rates later on Wednesday. It also follows weak readings on wholesale inflation via Producer Price Index and from the report on industrial production and capacity utilization. It is unlikely that a regional report would skew the Fed’s decision on interest rates in the wake of so much other negative economic reports, but we’ll leave that up to the powers that be.

Besides not being negative, and despite the very negative reading in May, the rise back to 6.01 was still the third positive reading in the past four months.

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New orders were also higher along with shipments, with new orders at 10.90 and with shipments at 9.32. There was a contraction seen in unfilled orders with the rate dropping down to −10.2. That seems to be a negative for employment, and the employment index gave a reading of zero.

Gains were seen in the six-month outlook, rising six points to 34.8, and this may help to set up a better expectation for this week’s Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing report. Additional data were seen as follows:

• The inventories index fell to −15.3, indicating that inventories were lower.
• The prices paid index held steady at 18.4, suggesting that moderate input price increases were continuing.
• The prices received index was near zero, indicating that selling prices were stable.
• Some 28% of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month.
• Some 22% of respondents reported that conditions had worsened.
• Prices paid index was little changed at 18.4, an indication that input prices continued to increase at a moderate pace.
• Prices received index ticked up but was still negative, −1.0, suggesting that selling prices were largely stable.

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