Will Flu Season Cost US $15.4 Billion in Lost Productivity?

By Douglas A. McIntyre Updated Jan 12, 3:46AM EST · Published Feb 3, 9:05AM EST

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Will Flu Season Cost US $15.4 Billion in Lost Productivity? — © Thinkstock

A new study estimates that the flu will cost $15.4 billion in lost productivity within the United States this year. The estimate, recently covered in the press, is based partially on old data and partially on assumptions that cannot be confirmed. In other words, the number is a guess.

The new study of the effects of the flu on productivity is from employee outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The research conclusions received a huge amount of press coverage. But the steps the firm took to come to the conclusion are pieced together from data about several recent years, which may not translate into the current conditions.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas researchers wrote:

The aggressive strain of flu currently making its way across the country is producing similar activity as when nearly 40 million people were sickened in the 2014-2015 season, according to the CDC. Considering this new information, this flu season could cost at least $15.4 billion in lost productivity …

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The firm offered an earlier estimate of $9.4 billion in lost productivity. It revised that number up because of data released more recently.

The two periods compared to reach the $15.4 billion figure:

New Estimate
18,100,827-24,641,000 estimated workers sickened
$26.63 – average hourly wage
$852.16 – average wages lost due to missing four eight-hour shifts
Estimated Losses: $15.4B-$20.9B

And:

2014-2015 Productivity Loss Estimate
18,100,827 estimated workers sickened
$25.26 – average hourly wage
$808.32 – average wages lost due to missing four eight-hour shifts
Estimated Losses: $14.6B

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Among other things, the number of sick workers could go much higher. Additionally, workers in segments of the economy could differ from those presented. The number of hours people are out between the current estimate and 2014 to 2015 may be different. The number of days people are out could be radically different as well, based on how virulent the current strain is.

CNBC came up with a number for the flu’s impact on the economy of $10.4 billion. It was released earlier than the Challenger number, and the primary comparison was to the 2015 to 2016 season. However, the difference between the two estimates is considerable.

How much will the current flu season cost the United States in productivity? No one will know until the season is over and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention posts its numbers. Even then, it will be a guess. There are too many variables to have a figure that is certain.

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About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.