The coronavirus pandemic has touched many parts of the global economy already, has hammered some sectors like travel and leisure, and promises to make things a lot worse before they get better.
In a new report on how the pandemic has affected global trade and corporate supply chains, S&P Global Intelligence identified lessons learned since the outbreak began and examines several examples of how companies in different sectors have performed so far.
Chris Rogers, Supply Chain Research Analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented:
Many companies are applying lessons learned during the trade war between the U.S. and China. While many firms are using expedited deliveries to maintain their supply chains, second order effects are also emerging with the apparel industry now seeing a shortage in materials due to an earlier lack of supplies from China. Global supply chains are expected to take an extended period to fully recover.
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Among the lessons from the first few months since the outbreak began is that its impact is widespread. The auto industry is cutting production, consumer electronics companies were among the first to warn on quarterly earnings, and apparel companies face challenges in getting finished goods to U.S. and European markets.
The logistics sector has slowed rapidly according to S&P. Cargo traffic through the Port of Los Angeles was down about 25% in February amid a rash of canceled ship sailings. Overall seaborne shipments from China to the U.S. in February dropped by 21%. Airfreight rates have jumped as well, partly due to fewer commercial passenger flights available to ship belly cargo.
S&P reviewed more than 6,000 company conference calls that occurred between January 20 and March 4. More than 42% of firms mentioned coronavirus, with a peak in the chemicals sector where 77% mentioned the outbreak. More than 72% of auto industry firms and 69% of high-tech hardware firms also mentioned coronavirus.
The tariff war between the U.S. and China sped up changes to supply chains even though many U.S. firms had already changed their reliance on China as a key supplier. Apparel retailer Stitch-Fix, for example, had cut its imports from China from 13.2% in 2018 to 4.7% in 2019
Second-order effects are popping up too. While some apparel makers no longer rely heavily on China for finished goods, the maker’s suppliers in Cambodia or Thailand or Vietnam continue to depend on China as a supplier of fabric. When homebuilder Toll Brothers reported results last month, the company said it could not sell 11 homes because lighting materials were held up due to the coronavirus outbreak in China.
S&P also looked at the proportion of several U.S. companies’ supply chains drawn from Asia and the proportion of revenues from Asia in comparison to sector-relative stock-price performance between January 1, 2020, and March 6, 2020. The review concluded that, in the retail sector, Asian revenue exposure seems to matter less than supply chain exposure in the retail sector.
Using a ratio of shipping containers (20-foot equivalent units, or TEUs) imported from Asia to the per dollar cost of goods sold (COGS), the study found that Ralph Lauren Corp. posted 2019 revenues 14.6% higher than the sector average and its ratio of Asian imports to its COGS was 1.55. Vera Bradley Inc.’s revenues were 14.1% below the sector average and the firm’s ratio was 12.41. Lauren’s revenues from sales in Asia accounted for 16.5% of total annual sales while Bradley reported no revenues from Asia.
When two sector companies report no Asian revenues, the one with the least supply chain exposure to Asia comes out on top. Retailer Costco, for example, reported revenues 16.5% higher than the sector (consumer staples) average and Pricesmart reported revenues 13.3% below average. Costco’s import-to-COGS ratio was 0.29 while PriceSmart’s was 1.43. Neither reported any revenue from Asia.
The implication, then, is that the less a company’s supply chain depends on imports from Asia–whether finished goods or parts–the smaller the impact of supply chain disruption resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. That may almost sound obvious, but as the pandemic spreads, keeping a company’s supply chain in good working condition is going to depend on how companies have already responded to the coronavirus and what they’ve learned that can be applied to an even tighter supply situation.
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