Economy

Odds of a Trump Victory Soar Past 60% on Betting Markets - What are Pollsters Missing?

Eric Bleeker

Published: October 25, 2024 1:52 pm

Last Updated: November 10, 2024 12:13 pm

We’re just 10 days away from the U.S. Presidential Election, and there’s a new feature this year: you can bet on who will win. In recent elections, pollsters like Nate Silver have applied deep statistical analysis to polling to determine which candidate is leading with added precision.

In recent years, prediction markets that allow users to place bets on outcomes have grown in popularity. Their future was in doubt after the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission blocked betting on elections. However, on September 12th, a Federal Judge ruled election prediction markets were legal.

Let’s dive into where prediction markets are pricing the upcoming election and compare these odds to professional pollsters.

Trump Pulls Ahead of Harris in Most Prediction Markets

As of October 25th, Donald Trump is now solidly leading Kamala Harris in most prediction markets. Interactive Brokers launched Election Forecast Contracts on October 7th.

Momentum continues to be on Trump’s side. One week ago, contracts for Donald Trump to win the Presidency traded for 59% probability. Volume in the past day on Interactive Brokers’ market has included 416,039 bets on Trump with 844,764 contracts traded on Harris.

Polymarket Odds Continue to Favor Trump

Turning to cryptocurrency betting markets, Donald Trump continues to see more of a lead. Here are the latest odds found on Polymarket.

• Donald Trump: 65.3% Odds to Win
• Kamala Harris: 34.6% Odds to Win

In total, $833 million has been bet on Trump while Harris has $530 million in bets. Yet, there is a widespread belief that odds for Trump have been driven higher on Polymarket by one “whale” buying enormous amounts of Trump bets. Last night, a single trader appeared to buy enough Trump futures that they ended up filling orders at a 99.7% probability he would win.

A wallet moved $3,000,000 to Polymarket today and put it all immediately on “YES” for Trump.

His only issue: he cleared the whole order book and bought $274,300 worth of shares at 99.7%. pic.twitter.com/GA2hlbKgqq

— Stats (@punk9059) October 25, 2024

Professional Pollsters Forecast a Much Tighter Race

Finally, looking at professional pollsters, FiveThirtyEight has Donald Trump at a 53% chance to win with Harris at 47%.  Nate Silver (who formerly was 538’s Managing Editor) has the election in close to a dead heat with Trump at 50.2%.

Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics currently has Trump winning 312 electoral votes to Harris’ 226 in their ‘No Toss Up’ scenario. Including toss ups, 219 votes are solidly Trump while 215 are solidly Harris. In other words, polls have the race extremely tight while we head into the home stretch.

The bottom line is that prediction markets continue to favor Trump beyond pollsters. Whether or not these markets are more “efficient” and pricing in factors pollsters are missing remains to be seen.