Begging is not manly, but it can be effective.
Yesterday, according to the FT, "Andris Piebalds, the European energy commissioner, urged Opec to increase oil production." And, Guy Caruso, a senior official at the US Department of Energy, warned that unless OPEC increased production further, the market “will be short of barrels in the first quarter of 2008”.
In the last week or two, as oil has moved toward $100 a barrel, it has begun to occur to government officials, economists, and business leaders that prices at that level could cause a huge slowdown in the global economy. China is already rationing fuel. That cold put a brake on its growth.
OPEC has resisted calls to increase production, but that could change quickly. Its members do not need a deep recession any more than the rest of the world. And, a profound slowdown could drop oil prices by half, it demand plummets. It is hard to remember, but oil has been below $60 in the last year.
A number of OPEC countries also rely on the US and its allies for aid, technology, and military protection. These are valuable bargaining chips for the West, and no one should think that the US and other countries would not hesitate to use them.
OPEC is going to release more oil, and soon.
Douglas A. McIntyre