Refineries Throw Wrench in Oil Inventory Data (OIH, DIG, USO, OIL)

As usual, the weekly energy inventories data is giving a picture that can be construed as bullish or bearish for the price of oil and gas, yet there is a wrench in the machine from refineries that has energy prices higher.  We are watching the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) reactions based upon the supply data.  At 11:21 AM EST we have oil up +$0.83 at $76.43, for a gain of +1.09%.

The Department of Energy showed a gain in crude oil by 334,000 barrels to 337.76 million barrels.  But gasoline stocks plummeted by -5.23 million barrels down to 209.159 million barrels.  Dow Jones had offered a forecast of a build of about 600,000 barrels of crude and of some 700,000 barrels of gasoline.

Distillates fell by -1.084 million barrels to 170.672 million barrels.  Dow Jones gave a forecast for a drop of only 100,000 barrels.  The underlying problem was the refining capacity, which was down at 80.9%.  The week before was 85.0% and Dow Jones had a figure projected of 84.6%.

Earlier this morning came the report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing that natural gas inventories rose by 58 billion cubic feet to what appears to be a new record level of 3.716 trillion cubic feet.  That being said, for the foreseeable future it seems that natural gas prices just need to trade based on how the delivery can be made to each point and not on inventory in the ground.

The Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH) is down by -0.3% at $125.35, the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG) is up 0.45% at $36.67, the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF is up 0.9% at $38.95and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) is up 0.9% at $25.70.

One of our affiliates just outlined in a short audio/video presentation the call for $90.00 oil soon, with the warning that seasonality generally comes into play during this time of year.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 15, 2009