What would become Lee is currently posing a threat the entire Gulf Coast again in the Gulf of Mexico.  The East Cost just had to deal with Irene and is now looking out toward Hurricane Katia for the weekend or so after Labor Day.  The oil companies are already reacting and you can expect that more will continue to react if the system develops further or gets worse.

See update after 11 AM EST today as the system was given a 70% chance of formation at 8 AM EST.

BP plc (NYSE: BP) was the first to pull the plug (no pun intended) on the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas platforms on Wednesday.  Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) has said that it is evacuating non-essential workers from the Gulf of Mexico although production is currently unaffected and the company is “closely monitoring” the tropical disturbance.  Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) has already announced it is removing non-essential workers from some of its Gulf of Mexico platforms.  Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and others are all “monitoring” the system as well.

The National Hurricane Center warning noted at 8 AM, “A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ON ITS EAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER…CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY…AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.”

The good news about this system, which would be named “Lee” if it becomes a Tropical Storm (or worse), is that it currently looks to be farther east from much of (certainly not all of) the Gulf of Mexico oil infrastructure.  With all of the damage to the coast in 2010 from a certain leak incident, most coastal residents would be happy to mail this one over to Florida.

The bad news about it not coming further west is that all of the comments yesterday were hoping for the storm to come to Texas because the rain is highly needed to saturate land suffering from a drought.

We will be updating this story after the 11 AM EST advisory… Stay tuned.

JON C. OGG

Storm Image below:

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