Energy

Expected Upside Gains for Oil Field Services Companies (SLB, HAL, BHI, RIG, NOV, WFT)

Following last year’s disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, oil drillers and field services companies watched their shares fall more than -20% in most cases as prospects for exploration and production dropped. Stock prices have mostly recovered since then, with many shares posting 52-week highs this past summer. The recovery was largely a product of the expanded drilling onshore in the US for shale gas. The low price for natural gas has had little impact on the number of wells drilled because the E&P companies need to keep drilling in order to maintain their leases. Drilling for higher priced liquids in the Bakken shale in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford shale in south Texas have largely carried the new drilling along.Today we look target prices and prospects for six oil field services companies: Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL), Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI), Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG), National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NYSE: NOV), and Weatherford International Inc. (NYSE: WFT). All data comes from Yahoo! Finance.

Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) has a median target price of $105.00 from 26 brokers. Shortly before noon today, shares are trading today at $70.00, for an implied gain of $35.00, or 50%. Schlumberger’s forward P/E is 13.15 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $54.79-$95.64, and at today’s price that’s about 28% above its 52-week low and 27% below the 52-week high. Schlumberger is the largest of the services companies and it has had four straight quarters of revenue growth and three of four quarters of profit growth. The company reports earnings on Friday, and is expected to post EPS of $1.01 on $10.25 billion in revenue. That’s revenue growth of 50% and EPS growth of 30%. The constraint on these numbers going forward is a weakening demand for energy as the global economy continues to struggle. With its upside potential and recent track record, the implied gain for Schlumberger is within reach.

Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) has a median target price of $65.00 from 27 brokers. Shares are trading today at $34.69, for an implied gain of $30.31, or 87%. Halliburton’s forward P/E is 7.85 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $27.21-$57.77, and at today’s price that’s about 27% above its 52-week low and 40% below the 52-week high. Halliburton reported earnings on Monday, beating EPS estimates of $0.92 by $0.02 and posting record revenue of $6.54 billion. The company is the largest seller of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) services in the US, and with interest in the method growing internationally, the company is well positioned to continue growing both revenues and profits. Halliburton’s shares have fallen slightly since its last report, likely due to overall economic conditions and the scant beat of EPS expectations.

Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) has a median target price of $91.00 from 24 brokers. Shares are trading today at $56.58, for an implied gain of $34.42, or 61%. Halliburton’s forward P/E is 9.75 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.1%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $41.91-$81.00, and at today’s price that’s about 35% above its 52-week low and 30% below the 52-week high. Baker Hughes last month increased the amount of borrowing available to it under its revolving credit facility to $2.5 billion. The interest rate on the facility varies from 0.625% to 1.125%, and S&P rates the company’s unsecured debt at ‘A’. In its most recent quarter, Baker Hughes improved EPS by more than double compared with the same period a year ago. Expectations for the third quarter, which ended in September, are for another doubling of EPS.

Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) has a median target price of $72.50 from 34 brokers. Shares are trading today at $50.99, for an implied gain of $20.51, or 40%.Transocean’s forward P/E is 8.95 and the company pays a dividend yield of 6.3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $41.88-$85.98, and at today’s price that’s about 22% above its 52-week low and 41% below the 52-week high. Transocean is most often thought of as an offshore drilling company, but it also provides many services similar to the Halliburtons and Schlumbergers of the world. The big difference is that it does not offer those services onshore. The other big difference is that Transocean has not yet come to an agreement with BP plc (NYSE: BP) over Transocean’s culpability for the Macondo well explosion. Until that is settled, the company remains under a cloud of uncertainty. The company’s share price is down more than -20% in the past year, the most of any company in this group.

National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NYSE: NOV) has a median target price of $95.00 from 23 brokers. Shares are trading today at $66.09, for an implied gain of $28.91, or 44%.National’s forward P/E is 11.59 and the company pays a dividend yield of 0.7%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $47.41-$86.71, and at today’s price that’s about 39% above its 52-week low and 24% below the 52-week high. National has just completed a $777 million acquisition of a pipe maker in order to be able to offer additional field services to its customers. The company also received a ‘buy’ rating from analyst firm Sterne Agee yesterday and earlier received an outlook rating of ‘positive’ from S&P. At the end of the last quarter, the company’s long-term debt totaled $500 million, and other acquisitions are not out of the question. The recent acquisition of Complete Production Services, Inc. (NYSE: CPX) by Superior Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE: SPN) could be an indicator that smaller services companies are in play.

Weatherford International Inc. (NYSE: WFT) has a median target price of $24.50 from 24 brokers. Shares are trading today at $15.15, for an implied gain of $9.35, or 62%.Weatherford’s forward P/E is 9.43 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $10.85-$26.25, and at today’s price that’s about 40% above its 52-week low and 42% below the 52-week high. Weatherford, like Transocean, has seen its share price fall in the past 52-weeks. Weatherford, like National, may be shopping for acquisitions, but the company’s $6.2 billion in long-term debt and modest free cash flow could be problematic.

Paul Ausick

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