IEA: Crude Prices Fall 20% from 2012 Peak

The International Energy Agency (IEA) this morning released its monthly oil market report, and as usual, there is some variation from the report that came out yesterday from OPEC. The IEA claims OPEC pumped 31.87 million barrels/day in May, significantly lower than OPEC’s own total production claim of 32.96 million barrels/day (in April — May data is incomplete). According to the IEA, total global supply in May reached 91.1 million barrels/day, more than 1 million barrels/day above average global demand of 89.9 million barrels/day.

The IEA noted that prices for Brent had fallen to about $97.50/barrel and prices for WTI crude had fallen to $83.50/barrel, down -20% from this year’s peak. The agency attributes the decline to “the deepening euro zone crisis, mounting concern over a slowdown in Chinese growth and rising global supplies.” No surprises there.

The increase in supply is coming primarily from North America, according to the IEA, which said OPEC production fell by 20,000 barrels/day in May. OPEC’s reported a drop of 58,000 barrels/day in May based on “secondary sources.”

IEA expects average daily global demand for crude to rise by 820,000 barrels/day in 2012, while OPEC forecasts demand growth of 900,000 barrels/day.

The IEA also expects refinery demand to increase by 2.8 million barrels/day by August as refinery maintenance is completed and demand for summer season driving fuel rises. The agency forecast a global increase from second quarter refinery demand of 74.3 million barrels/day to 75.9 million barrels/day by August.

Brent crude is trading up 0.4% at $97.53/barrel in electronic trading this morning, while WTI is trading downb -0.14% at $83.20/barrel.

Paul Ausick