WTI crude oil futures for March delivery topped $100 a barrel on the Nymex Monday after a brief stop at that level last Friday, and there’s every reason to believe that the rise will continue for a while longer. Traders saw last Friday’s unemployment rate of 6.6% as good news for the U.S. economy, and the weaker U.S. dollar and expected declines in inventory levels are also supporting higher prices for crude.

Independent refiners are taking the biggest hits today. Valero Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is down 2.64% at $47.32 in a 52-week range of $ 33.00 to $53.64. The high was set on January 10th, and since then Valero stock has dropped more than 8%. The consensus price target is around $58.50, up from $50.40 in early January so Valero’s shares sport a potential upside of about 24%. The forward multiple for 2015 at that price is just over 8.

The largest independent U.S. refiner, Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), is down nearly 2% at $72.83 in a 52-week range of $54.80 to $79.00. Like Valero, the stock’s annual high was posted in early January and shares have pulled back about 5% since then. The consensus price target is around $84.80, up from $77.50 in early January so the company’s shares now indicate a potential upside of about 16%. The forward multiple for 2015 at that price is around 9.5.

Independent producer Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLR) is also down about 2% at $107.67 in a 52-week range of $72.35 to $121.78. The stock’s annual high was posted in mid-October. Continental just reported a 38% increase in its proved reserves to 1.08 billion barrels, primarily in the Bakken play in North Dakota. The stock’s price target is $131.45 and at the current price that implies a potential gain of 22%. The forward P/E ratio is 15.24 based on 2014 earnings.

ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) trades down more than 1% at $89.60 in a 52-week range of $84.79 to $101.74. The annual high was posted on December 27th and the shares have dropped nearly 11% since then. Based on a consensus price target of around $99.70 the stock’s potential upside at today’s trading price is around 11%. Exxon’s forward P/E ratio for 2015 is about 11.6.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is off about 0.7% in mid-afternoon trading at $111.33 in a 52-week range of $109.27 to $127.83. The high was posted all the way back in late July, but the stock traded over $125 in late December, and like Exxon, the price has dropped nearly 11% since then. With a consensus price target of $129.80, the potential upside based on today’s price is almost 17%.

Does any of these stocks have a chance of posting those potential gains? The refiners almost certainly don’t because their feedstock prices will be rising. Independent producer Continental’s success depends on the differential between Bakken and WTI crude prices, while Exxon and Chevron will suffer from poor refining margins going forward. These stocks may not be the best places to look for a value opportunity as crude prices begin to rise.

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