Cowen Remains Bullish on Five Top Oil Refiners for the Rest of the Year

In a new research report, the team at Cowen submit that regulations are largely unchanged and permits for condensate export do not constitute precedent. In fact, their lead analyst continues to think actual crude exports are highly unlikely and there is no change to the spirit of the law. Cowen remains bullish longer term and they see the potential for a meaningful feedstock advantage for U.S. refiners emerging later this year, with U.S. crude production inflecting at 9 million barrels-per-day and Gulf Coast imports baselining at 2.8-3 million barrels-per-day.

Cowen lists five top names to own, especially after Wall Street analysts work down estimates for the second quarter and the balance of the year.

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) is a top refining name investors can buy now in hopes of substantial gains down the road. Marathon has a diversified business that operates through Refining & Marketing, Speedway and Pipeline Transportation segments. The company owns and operates seven refineries in the Gulf Coast and Midwest regions of the United States that refine crude oil and other feedstocks. It also distributes refined products through barges, terminals, and trucks, as well as purchases ethanol and refined products for resale. Shareholders are paid a 1.9% dividend. The Cowen price target is $120. The Thomson/First Call consensus price target is $104.91. Marathon closed Friday at $79.40 a share.

ALSO READ: Four Solid Dividends Yielding 9.5% or More

PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE: PBF) engages in the refining and supply of petroleum products. It provides gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks and other petroleum products. It also has stated in the past that the rising RIN costs will be passed along to the consumer, which makes for bad publicity, but will increase earnings. Shareholders are paid a very solid 3.8% dividend. Cowen has a $35 price target, and the consensus target is at $33.27. PBF closed Friday at $27.01.

Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) is another one of the Cowen top picks in refining for this year. Many Wall Street analysts cite the possibility for meaningful EBITDA growth driven by its newly acquired Carson refinery and eventually through its Port of Vancouver crude logistics project. Investors are paid a 1.6% dividend. The Cowen price objective for the stock is $65, while the consensus is posted even higher at $67. Tesoro closed Friday at $59.60.

ALSO READ: Five Stocks That Could Benefit From Lifting of Oil Export Ban

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) has 56% of companywide refining capacity located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, which makes Valero well positioned to benefit from the ongoing infrastructure debottlenecking of inland crude oil supply in 2014 and beyond. Some Wall Street estimates have the company generating an astounding free cash flow compounded annual growth rate of 24% during the period from now to 2016. Investors are paid a 1.7% dividend. The Cowen price target is $61 and the consensus target is $62.49. Valero closed Friday at $51.67.

Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) has received big earnings revision boosts from Wall Street over the past few months with estimates for 2014 and 2015 increased by 8%. The refining segment operates refineries in El Paso, Texas, and Gallup, N.M. The Wholesale segment includes a fleet of crude oil and finished product truck transports, and has wholesale petroleum products operations in nine U.S. states. Investors are paid a respectable 2.5% dividend. The Cowen price target is $46 and the consensus is at $47.29. The stock closed Friday at $38.38.

ALSO READ: Ten Cities Where Foreign Companies Create the Most Jobs

Despite a ton of negative sentiment, the refiners and energy as a whole look poised to do well the rest of the year. The condensate export issue took a toll on the stocks, and investors can buy some of these top names as much as 15% cheaper than two short weeks ago.

With oil prices over the $100 mark and the busy summer travel season already starting, demand should only start to increase from here. If the refinery investors get the spread blow-out that Cowen and other Wall Street firms are looking for in the fourth quarter, things could really get exciting for these top names to buy.