While low crude pricing can be a burden on the top integrateds and exploration and production companies, it is welcomed by the refiners, which have for the most part, had an awesome run over the past year. A new Credit Suisse research piece says that seasonal slowdowns combined with bears trying to press shorts could force a near-term sell down.
Credit Suisse also says to watch for any sell-off, especially now in November, because any consolidation in the sector may give investors a perfect chance to scale buy shares. The analysts think the stocks will then rally from December through May of 2016. Four are rated Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Marathon Petroleum
This top refiner rolled over some after earnings and may be offering an outstanding entry point. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) has a diversified business that operates through Refining & Marketing, Speedway and Pipeline Transportation segments. It owns and operates seven refineries in the Gulf Coast and Midwest regions of the United States that refine crude oil and other feedstocks. It distributes refined products through barges, terminals and trucks, as well as purchases ethanol and refined products for resale.
While acknowledging that the company’s margins may have compressed some, many on Wall Street also expect strong revenue contribution from the assets acquired from Hess, and the company converted almost all the Hess stations to the company’s Speedway brand. The company is also consolidating its own master limited partnership and the newly acquired MarkWest Energy Partners.
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In the most recent quarter, fully diluted earnings per share came in at $1.76. While this was an impressive gain, it actually failed to meet consensus analyst expectations. The company did realize a $0.17 per share write-down from the cancellation of its Residual Oil Upgrader Expansion project at one of its refineries.
Marathon shareholders are paid a 2.42% dividend. The Credit Suisse price target for the stock is $70. The Thomson/First Call consensus price target is $65.87. Shares closed trading Monday at $52.92.
PBF Energy
This company is also down from highs printed in August but is bouncing back nicely. PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE: PBF) engages in the refining and supply of petroleum products. It provides gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks and other petroleum products.
The stock surged earlier this year when the petroleum refiner and supplier announced plans to acquire the Chalmette Refinery outside of New Orleans, a joint venture between Exxon Mobil and Venezuela’s PDVSA, for $322 million. With the addition of Chalmette to its portfolio, PBF will be able to boost its capacity by an additional 189,000 barrels per day from its current capacity of 725,000 barrels per day. This deal is expected to boost the company’s earnings by as much as 20%.
PBF investors receive an outstanding 3.5% dividend. The Credit Suisse price objective is raised from $39 to $42. The consensus target is $41.55. The stock closed Monday at $34.46.
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Tesoro
This is another one of the top refining stocks to buy at Credit Suisse. Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) is an independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products. Through its subsidiaries, it operates six refineries in the western United States with a combined capacity of over 850,000 barrels per day, in addition to ownership in a logistics business that includes a 36% interest in Tesoro Logistics and ownership of its general partner. Tesoro’s retail-marketing system includes over 2,200 retail stations under the ARCO, Shell, Exxon, Mobil, USA Gasoline and Tesoro brands.
Tesoro continues to be plagued by delays in a detailed government review of its proposed $210 million railport project in Washington state. Now it appears a final decision will not happen until 2016, according to a state council’s published schedule. The 360,000 barrels-per-day project would be the biggest in the United States, moving domestic and Canadian crude via rail to Washington’s Port of Vancouver, where it would be loaded onto vessels to supply West Coast refineries that are located mainly in California.
Tesoro investors receive a 1.8% dividend. Credit Suisse loves the multiple discount and raised the price target from $130 to $135. The consensus target is $119.65. The shares closed most recently at $111.35.
Valero Energy
This is another Wall Street and Credit Suisse favorite to buy on any pullback. Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) has 56% of companywide refining capacity located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, which makes it well positioned to benefit from the ongoing infrastructure debottlenecking of inland crude oil supply in 2015 and beyond. Some Wall Street estimates have the company generating an astounding free cash flow compounded annual growth rate of 24% from now to 2016.
Numerous Wall Street analysts have cited the big pile of cash Valero has and are specially interested in possible mergers and acquisition activity in both refining and midstream assets. The company reported $1.4 billion in net income from continuing operations in the third quarter, or $2.79 per share, compared to $1.1 billion, or $2 per share, during the same period a year ago. In addition, the dividend was raised by 25%. The dividend will be paid out on Dec. 17 to the holders of record at the close of business on Nov. 23.
Investors are paid a 2.96% dividend. The Credit Suisse price target is lifted to $85 from $80, while the consensus target is $77.87. Valero closed Monday at $68.03.
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Are the refiners getting up there in valuation? The answer is probably yes, but the companies have pulled back from 52-week highs and are poised to keep the winning ways going. While most of the huge money has been made, total return investors looking for a degree of safety can still buy these top companies now. Credit Suisse again suggests possibly waiting for a near-term pullback to step in.
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