Energy

Analyst Sees 50% More Upside in SunEdison After First Wind Acquisition

SunEdison Inc. (NYSE: SUNE) is getting a steal of a deal in its acquisition, along with TerraForm Power Inc. (NASDAQ: TERP), of First Wind. That is the take of Merrill Lynch analysts Krish Sankar and Andrew Hughes after the firm’s post-announcement investor meeting. The analysts are valuing the $2.4 billion deal at seven to eight times estimated EBITDA. They see Sun Edison’s pipeline acquisition at six to seven times, while seeing future accretion from dropdowns.

What stands out heavily in the research note on SunEdison is not the Merrill Lynch rating of Buy. It is that the former $28 price target was moved up to $32, based on higher pipeline valuation. This represents a near-50% implied gain, if a sum of the parts analysis is accurate.

The analysts also noted that even the 9.2 multiple paid by TerraForm is toward the low end of the valuation range for recent operating asset purchases. The analysts said, “Our first take on deal valuation suggests substantial accretion potential from the future dropdown to TerraForm of new asset additions to SUNE’s pipeline.”

In order to reach a full potential value, the analysts noted that SunEdison must navigate wind-related execution risk unique to a solar developer. The team said:

The good news is the deal’s earnout provision requires SUNE to retain key First Wind employees who have developed, own and/or operated over 1GW of contracted wind generation in the United States. SunEdison’s assertion that the 1.6GW pipeline is fully tax-credit (ITC and PTC) compliant also suggests to us that at least a portion of project related expenditures have already been incurred at most if not all projects due to continuous construction requirements for eligibility. Finally, we note that Terraform will also face recontracting risk related to certain operating First Wind assets that could impact sponsor cash flows, in our view.

ALSO READ: 10 Companies That Will Not Be Saved by the Bull Market Alone

Merrill Lynch’s estimates were unchanged, and the firm plans to update its financial model when the deal closes in the first quarter of 2015.

What investors need to keep in mind here is that SunEdison shares rose to $21.48 after previously closing at $16.61. That is already a very steep jump up in the stock, but now the team is suggesting an even higher price objective.

SunEdison shares were down marginally at $21.41 in late Wednesday trading, against a 52-week trading range of $11.11 to $24.35. Analysts have a consensus price target of $26.71, and the highest analyst price target is all the way up at $35.00.

100 Million Americans Are Missing This Crucial Retirement Tool

The thought of burdening your family with a financial disaster is most Americans’ nightmare. However, recent studies show that over 100 million Americans still don’t have proper life insurance in the event they pass away.

Life insurance can bring peace of mind – ensuring your loved ones are safeguarded against unforeseen expenses and debts. With premiums often lower than expected and a variety of plans tailored to different life stages and health conditions, securing a policy is more accessible than ever.

A quick, no-obligation quote can provide valuable insight into what’s available and what might best suit your family’s needs. Life insurance is a simple step you can take today to help secure peace of mind for your loved ones tomorrow.

Click here to learn how to get a quote in just a few minutes.

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.

AI Portfolio

Discover Our Top AI Stocks

Our expert who first called NVIDIA in 2009 is predicting 2025 will see a historic AI breakthrough.

You can follow him investing $500,000 of his own money on our top AI stocks for free.