Friday will mark the crest of earnings season for the Dow and S&P 500, but it will also bring earnings reports from both of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s oil giants. Both Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) will to report results on Friday.

24/7 Wall St. watches many key earnings with a different view on each. In the case of Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the big question to keep in mind on top of actually making positive earnings per share will be the annual dividend coverage of each company.

Due to low oil prices, and due to low share prices, the dividend yields here look artificially higher than most investors have had in these companies. Exxon’s common stock dividend yield is 3.7% and Chevron’s dividend yield is 4.7%.

Both companies have trimmed capital spending plans to adapt to lower oil prices, but lower earnings per share means a smaller part of the earnings pie to use for dividends and stock buybacks. On dividend, Chevron has still maintained its dividend but Exxon Mobil managed to raise its dividend earlier this year. Exxon Mobil has been the king of stock buybacks in the oil patch, but both companies have indicated lower buyback efforts due to the current environment.

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Exxon Mobil

Exxon Mobil is expected to post earnings per share of $1.11 on revenues of $72.5 billion, although very few analysts actually make predictions about the revenues. Exxon’s report a year ago was $2.05 EPS and revenues of $111.65 billion. The EPS estimate has risen by about 5 cents since last Friday.

Since the beginning of the year, Exxon’s share price has dropped along with the pressure in oil. Refining margins boosted Exxon’s earnings last quarter by $1 billion. Exxon was also recently added to the prized Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.

Now we have to consider the annual consensus analyst estimates of $4.46 in EPS for 2015 and $5.25 EPS for 2016. Exxon’s 3.7% yield is derived from an annual dividend of $2.92. If that holds up, then Exxon easily has the dividend coverage.

With a consensus price target of $92.20, investors need to consider that the $83 or so price compares to a 52-week range of $78.97 to $101.98. Exxon has a market cap of almost $350 billion.

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Chevron

Chevron also reports earnings on Friday and analysts are looking for EPS of $1.16 on revenues of $30.9 billion. That would compare to $2.98 EPS and revenues of $57.94 billion in the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate has risen more than 5 cents this week.

The other consensus estimates are $4.09 EPS for 2015 and $5.91 EPS for 2016. Chevron’s bulky 4.7% dividend yield is based upon a $4.28 per share payout. That leaves this year’s expected EPS lower than its per share dividend liability.

While Chevron has ample to cash to fund that dividend, what happens if the expected 2016 EPS growth turns into contraction? It could likely afford to pay the dividend again, but investors don’t like that trend.

Earlier in the week, Chevron’s stock price decline since the start of 2015 was actually worse than the drop in the price of crude. Around $93 now, its 52-week range is $88.74 to $131.97. Chevron’s analysts have a consensus price target of $109.61. Chevron has a market cap of about $175 billion.

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The reality is that investors and analysts alike have many different metrics. Some will be looking at the carry value of their proven reserves, and some will be focused on margins. Some will focus on margins, some will focus on operating costs.

The reality is that a lot of this will boil down to the future price of oil. If oil gets back up in the $50s or rises back even further, then investors will treat the companies well. If oil falls back down toward $40 (or worse), oil investors will have a hard time finding much cover.

With almost $525 billion worth of market cap between these two companies, these two earnings reports may dictate how investors treat the oil and gas sector ahead.

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