We already have looked at one possible reason for the share price boost: Carl Icahn’s announced acquisition of about 8.2% of the outstanding shares of Cheniere Energy Inc. (NYSEMKT: LNG), in what is ultimately a bet that global demand will increase and that natural gas prices will rise. By itself, though, even Icahn’s vote of confidence in natural gas is not enough to move Chesapeake’s stock by nearly 11% in half an hour as it did this morning.
Chesapeake’s earnings announcement made pretty clear that the company plans to continue shedding assets and increasing production, even though natural gas prices remain under $3 per thousand cubic feet. The company has not said which of its assets it will sell, but it has a lot to choose from.
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Under founder and former CEO Aubrey McClendon, Chesapeake’s strategy was to be first into a new shale play, buying up all the leases it could get its hands on with cash from its already-producing wells and borrowing from willing lenders. Had natural gas prices remained at around $8 per thousand cubic feet, that strategy would have made the company appear to be managed by visionaries and geniuses. Alas, it was not to be.
What assets could Chesapeake look to shed? Those that come most immediately to mind are the dry gas leases in Ohio’s Utica shale play. Chesapeake is the largest leaseholder in the Utica shale and said on its conference call this week that it is cutting production in the Utica by about 275 million cubic feet a day from now through October. A 76-mile connector to the Gulf Coast Pipeline is expected to be in service by November, and Chesapeake could move up to 350 million cubic feet a day of natural gas to the Gulf Coast.
An additional 500 million cubic feet of gas a day is also on hold in the Marcellus shale play in neighboring Pennsylvania. As more pipeline capacity becomes available to move this gas, it too could be headed for the liquefied natural gas plants that are sprouting along the Gulf Coast.
In the noon hour on Friday, Chesapeake’s shares traded at $8.70, up about 6.2%, in a 52-week range of $6.85 to $27.24. The consensus price target on the stock is $12.28 from 27 analysts.
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