Energy

How Does Kinder Morgan Plan to Raise Cash?

The largest energy midstream company in the United States, Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI), reported third-quarter results after markets closed on Wednesday, and the reaction from some analysts was quick: Credit Suisse downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral and cut the price target from $52 to $39. But was the quarter as bad as all that?

Kinder Morgan’s stock price has been pummeled since the company reported first-quarter earnings back in April. Shares peaked at near $45 then and closed below $30 on Thursday.

In mid-September, the company tried to pump up its share price: “We believe the market has not adequately distinguished between us and other energy companies.” Its primary argument is that the vast majority of its expected earnings are fee-based or hedged and therefore not captive to the commodity price of oil or natural gas.

That argument is a two-edged sword, though. Yes, fee-based, take-or-pay contracts virtually guarantee a steady stream of revenue. But those fees are mostly regulated and not easy to increase even if demand rises.

As a result, a midstream company has to figure out a way to grow capacity, another time-consuming and expensive process. Just ask TransCanada.

While operations are important, Kinder Morgan and, in fact, all midstream companies are all about cash and cash flows. In Kinder Morgan’s case, investors have grown accustomed to the company matching its projected dividend increases no matter what.

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Kinder Morgan has managed to meet those expectations, typically by raising cash in some way other than charging more for its services. The company could issue more stock, add more to its investment-grade debt by acquiring new assets or drop down assets to its former master limited partnership.

On Wednesday, though, the company’s executive chairman, Richard Kinder, said that there would be no new equity issued at least through the first half of next year. Kinder indicated that the company had identified an “alternative source” of funds without specifying what that source is. He also said that dividend growth next year would fall in the range of 6% to 10%, a drop from a previous forecast for solid 10% growth for the period between 2016 and 2020.

Anyone who doubts that Kinder Morgan will do whatever it must do to raise enough cash to lift its dividend payments need only look at the company’s history. Bloomberg News speculates that the company could issue convertible preferred stock or perhaps perpetual preferred stock. Kinder Morgan also could sell some assets, or it could invite a private equity partner to buy into the company. Even at the current market cap of around $65 billion, a 3% stake in Kinder Morgan would meet dividend payouts for at least the next two quarters. The terms of such a partnership might be a bit tricky to work out, but Kinder Morgan has thrived primarily because it has been willing to push the envelope on financing its growth.

The company has added nothing to Kinder’s comment on an alternative funding source. That, too, is in line with the company’s history of keeping things close to the vest so that when the announcement is made, there will be plenty of “oohs” and “aahs” from the gallery. At the rate the stock price is dropping, we should expect to hear something sooner rather than later too.

Kinder Morgan stock closed down about 5.3% at $29.75 on Thursday, in a 52-week price range of $25.81 to $44.71.

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