Energy

Why Oppenheimer Wants to Chase Warren Buffett in Phillips 66

Chris Lange

Published: December 4, 2015 1:15 pm

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 4:27 pm

Despite low oil prices, Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) has completely outperformed the market. This company has long been a staple of Warren Buffett’s portfolio and it is now attracting the attention of one key analyst.

Oppenheimer raised its price target to $110 from $95 on continued growth outlook, solid financial condition and industry-leading return to shareholders. The company announced a 2016 capital expenditure budget of $3.6 billion, excluding $314 million for Phillips 66 L.P., for a combined $3.9 billion, two-thirds for growth investments, mostly midstream projects, and refining projects to improve product yields and lower feedstock costs.

The company increased its share repurchase program by $2 billion, for roughly $3 billion of remaining capacity under its current authorization. Phillips 66 returned $673 million to shareholders in the third quarter, including $300 million in dividends and $373 million in share repurchases, and it has completed $6 billion of the $9 billion in share repurchases authorized. It has increased the dividend by 180% since May of 2012.

Earnings were $1.65 billion, or $3.02 per share, up 50% year over year and 66% sequentially. Operating cash flow was $1.9 billion funded by $992 million in capital expenditures, $300 million in dividends and $373 million in share repurchases. Total debt at quarter-end was $8.95 billion, cash was $4.8 billion and the net debt ratio was 14.5%.

Refining crude utilization increased to 96% from the second quarter’s 90%, as a major turnaround at the Humber Refinery in the United Kingdom, which affected the second quarter, was completed early in the third quarter, and also reflecting higher utilization in the Gulf Coast. Turnaround costs were $69 million, while the clean product yield was 84%.

Marketing and other segments contributed $291 million, up $157 million sequentially on improved margins and volumes. Refined product exports in the third quarter were 118 mbd (thousand barrels per day), down from 143 mbd in the second quarter, due to advantaged domestic markets. Specialties generated earnings of $53 million, up $5 million sequentially, mainly due to improved lubricants margins.

Olefins and Polyolefins contributed $261 million, down $6 million sequentially, as higher sales volumes and lower costs were more than offset by insurance recoveries recognized in the second quarter and lower ethylene margins. Utilization was 94%, versus the second quarter’s 91%. Specialties, Aromatics and Styrenics contributed $17 million, down $21 million sequentially on lower equity affiliates earnings and lower volumes.

Shares of Phillips 66 were last seen trading up 0.6% at $89.14, with a consensus analyst price target of $96.92 and a 52-week trading range of $57.33 to $94.12.