What to Expect From SolarCity Earnings

Since the beginning of the year, shares of SolarCity Corp. (NASDAQ: SCTY) have lost about 47% of their value. The drop was likely precipitated by proposed — and ultimately adopted — rules in Nevada imposing higher net metered rates on homeowners who had installed or who would install rooftop solar panels.

When SolarCity reports earnings after markets close Tuesday, analysts are looking for a quarterly loss of $2.59 and revenues of $105.62 million. In the same period last year, the company reported a net loss of $1.33 and revenues of $71.81 million. For the full year, analysts are estimated a net loss of $8.03 and revenues of $389.68 million, compared with a 2014 net loss of $3.88 and revenues of $255.03 million.

The company’s prospects did get some positive knock-on effect when the federal budget that was passed in December included continued tax breaks for the alternative energy industry. But the Nevada decision, coupled with uncertainty about a public utilities commission ruling on net metering in California, added too much weight for the company to overcome.

Looking at some analyst calls since the beginning of 2016, we note that most are positive, but investors have not bought into the story:

• Goldman Sachs raised its price target from $42 to $59 and its most recent rating was Neutral.
• Bernstein reiterated a Buy rating and maintained a $62 price target.
• Axiom Securities rates the stock a Sell.
• Barclays initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a price target of $49.
• Roth Capital maintained a Buy rating and a price target of $65.
• Avondale Partners reiterated its Market Outperform rating and its most recent price target is $65.
• Stifel maintained a Buy rating but lowered its price target from $86 to $80.
• Needham reiterated a Hold rating.

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Short interest in the stock is at its lowest since last July, but about a third higher than at the same time last year. Clearly short sellers don’t think that the stock has hit its floor yet.

At Monday’s closing price of $27.94, the implied upside on the stock is nearly 140%. The multiyear extension to the federal tax break is a big plus for SolarCity and other installers, but 140% seems like a stretch, even with the favorable ruling in California.

Ahead of the earnings report SolarCity stock traded down about 3.8% on the day, at $26.86 in a 52-week range of $24.07 to $63.79. The consensus price target on the stock is $66.67.