Regardless of how the big OPEC meeting goes in Doha, the recent price moves of crude oil are signaling that prices will be going higher. The total collapse of working rigs all around the world will start to level off the perceived glut faster than many think. In fact, there are just 41 oil and natural gas drilling rigs active in Canada right now, compared to 212 at this point in 2014.
A new Deutsche Bank research report calls for West Texas Intermediate at $47 a barrel by the fourth quarter of this year and $52 by 2017. One thing is for sure, when you combine a plummeting rig count with continued solid demand, something has got to give.
We screened the firm’s coverage list of exploration and production companies and found four that look very solid now.
Continental Resources
This company has a very large exposure to crude oil. Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLR) is a top 10 independent oil producer in the United States is the largest leaseholder and one of the largest producers in the nation’s premier oil field, the Bakken play of North Dakota and Montana. The company also has significant positions in Oklahoma, including its SCOOP Woodford and SCOOP Springer discoveries and the Northwest Cana play.
Continental was one of the companies that Goldman Sachs thought could be able to thrive even with oil at the $35 level. Should it push towards $50, it seems that the upside could be dramatic.
The Deutsche Bank price target was raised to $40 from $34, and the Thomson/First Call consensus price target is $33.14. The share closed most recently at $33.53.
Encana
This top stock has been absolutely mauled, down a gigantic 84% since the summer of 2014. Encana Corp. (NYSE: ECA), with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, exploration, production and marketing of natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Canada and the United States.
The company owns interests in plays, such as the Montney in northern British Columbia and northwest Alberta; Duvernay in west central Alberta; Clearwater in central and southern Alberta; Deep Panuke in offshore Nova Scotia; Cadomin/Doig in northeast British Columbia; Horn River in northeast British Columbia; and Granite Wash/Doig in northwest Alberta.
The company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2015 results on improved crude volumes. The stock is also a favorite at Goldman Sachs, especially if oil stays in the mid-$30s range.
The Deutsche Bank price target is a whopping $8, while the consensus target is lower at $7.20. The shares closed Wednesday at $6.86.
Gulfport Energy
This is one of the favorites around Wall Street among the smaller more nimble companies and is also a member of the Jefferies Franchise Picks portfolio. Gulfport Energy Corp. (NASDAQ: GPOR) is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company with its principal producing properties located in the Utica Shale of eastern Ohio and along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. In addition, Gulfport holds a sizable acreage position in the Alberta Oil Sands in Canada through its 24.9% interest in Grizzly Oil Sands.
Gulfport is a favorite of hedge fund managers, In fact, according to Insider Monkey, 36 hedge funds owned positions in the stock late last year. The shares hit some weakness on gas prices and a lower growth outlook, a move lower many believe is overdone and recent stock movement seems to have confirmed. With a multiple in line with peers and an expected ramp-up in production this year, the stock may be a great value at current levels despite the current big rally.
The Deutsche Bank price target is $35, and the consensus target is $34.18. The stock closed Wednesday at $29.44.
Newfield Exploration
This company has one of the best production mixes of the stocks rated Buy, with 45% oil and 37% natural gas, and the balance in NGLs. Newfield Exploration Co. (NYSE: NFX) is an independent energy company engaged in exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and NGLs.
It is focused on North American resource plays, and the company’s principal areas of operation include the Mid-Continent, the Rocky Mountains and onshore Texas. In addition, Newfield has oil developments offshore China. Estimates for the company have been going higher, and a solid first-quarter print could really help the stock take off.
Deutsche Bank has a $40 price target, and the consensus target is $38.30. Shares closed Wednesday at $35.08.
While oil will continue to remain volatile, the trend clearly seems to be higher. It could take decades to ever trade over $100 again, and that level really is a pressure point on consumers. However, a continued move higher this year and next appears to be in the cards.
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